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The polls all show Joe Biden leading comfortably.
But the one the ground reality paints a different picture.
And Joe Biden got hit with a nasty surprise about the polls that left him speechless.
It’s a deep blue state that reliably votes Democrat and which holds the longest consecutive streak of electing Democrat governors with the last GOP win coming in 1980.
But Washington Post op-ed columnist Henry Olsen crunched the numbers from the recent congressional primary and found the GOP with surprising strength that could foreshadow another surprising election night.
Olsen noted that Washington’s primary places all candidates on the same ballot regardless of party.
After all the votes are tallied, political observers add up the votes for all the candidates and see which party turned out more voters.
Olsen wrote that this is a reliable indicator for how the General Election will turn out in these congressional races.
“In the past decade, the difference between Democrats and Republicans in Washington’s congressional primaries has been within five points or fewer of the partisan gap in the general election in 26 of 37 opportunities. Moreover, the party that led in the primary also won the seat in the general every time,” Olsen wrote.
Olsen noted that the GOP turned out more voters in eight out of 10 congressional districts than they did in 2018.
“That track record is why the state’s recent primary results are so important. With more than 99 percent of the votes counted, Republicans have a higher share of the total vote than they did in 2018 in eight of the state’s 10 congressional districts. (Both seats where they have declined are in ultraprogressive Seattle.) That alone would suggest that Republicans in the state will fare better in November than they did in the midterms two years ago, even though the national polls suggest they will not,” Olsen added.
Olsen also revealed that the GOP turned out more voters than the Democrats in the rural areas and even found some surprising strength in a suburban district that was formerly Republican-held by the Democrats flipped in 2018.
In Washington’s 8th Congressional District, GOP vote totals exceeded Democrats 49 percent to 47 percent.
Olsen also found that in the Trump-friendly areas of the state, turnout was up, which suggests that the President’s base is just as energized as ever and could translate to the President running much more competitively in swing states than the current polls suggest.
“A deeper dive yields even more positive news for the GOP. Republican candidates exceeded their 2018 vote share by 5 points or more in the five seats that don’t include parts of Seattle’s King County or its major suburb, Snohomish County. That indicates the GOP is gaining a lot of support over 2018 in the same kind of rural and small metro areas across the country that helped elect Trump in 2016 and allowed the party to flip Senate seats in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota in 2018. If Washington’s pattern applied nationwide, it would mean Trump would be much more competitive in swing states such as Wisconsin and North Carolina than the polls currently show,” Olsen added.
The news was not all good for the GOP because they continued to lose ground in the Seattle suburbs.
But in the 2020 primaries, Donald Trump won a historic amount of votes for a sitting President.
That data point, as well as the better than expected GOP turnout in Washington, shows the President’s coalition is in much sturdier shape than pundits previously thought.
(h/t Black Eye Politics)