Barack Obama did not endorse Joe Biden until very late in the process. There was…Read More →
Donald Trump and his campaign are confident in their chances of victory.
Americans are asking themselves if they should be.
And Donald Trump could not believe the results of this new swing state polling.
As Great American Daily reports:
National polls show Joe Biden up by about eight points in the Real Clear Politics polling average.
However, as all Americans were reminded in 2016, the popular vote is irrelevant and the only way to win the presidency is accumulating 270 Electoral College votes.
That’s why the true measure of a race is where the candidates stand in the swing states that truly decide the election.
And the presidential election received a shake-up because of new polling from six key battleground states.
The Daily Wire reports, “Change Research, which operates as polling apparatus largely for Democratic candidates and organizations, is out with a new poll Wednesday showing Trump making big gains on Biden in ‘toss-up’ states across the board, from Arizona to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida — states Biden led by a considerable margin just two weeks ago.”
And in fact,the President gained significant ground in two weeks in the Change Research/CNBC polls.
Two weeks ago, Biden led by six in Arizona, six in Michigan, seven in Florida, one in North Carolina, eight in Pennsylvania, and six in Wisconsin.
The most recent Change Research/CNBC polls told a totally different story.
This most recent round of polling showed Biden ahead, but by a much narrower margin.
Biden led by just two in Arizona, three in Florida, two in Pennsylvania, four in Michigan, five in Wisconsin and three in North Carolina.
Two weeks ago, the coronavirus outbreak in the Sun Belt was peaking as cases exploded to over 70,000 per day which was a more than three-fold increase since May.
But now that outbreak has passed its peak and is starting the decline while the administration has made major announcements about the progress on vaccines.
One way to watch polls is to either look at the aggregate of the polling as Real Clear Politics does or to watch individual pollsters and see how their results track over time.
If a pollster using the same methodology over and over again produces results moving in one candidate’s favor, then you can see that the race is shifting in that candidate’s direction.
Two weeks ago, Change Research and CNBC showed Joe Biden leading President Trump by an aggregate of nine points in the battleground states.
Now the President sliced that margin to just three points.
Other polling will have to back this up, but the CNBC polls could be the first sign of a shift in the race to the President’s favor.